Friendship of the people / Visit Mountain.
Friendship of the people / Visit Mountain.
Secrets of "Pine forest".
The main output of a present meeting of Mountains-chernomyrdin was not that
That was discussed in conditions appeared in the formal agenda, and
Strict confidentiality in residence situated near Moscow "Pine forest".
Present meeting of vice-president of the United States Albert Gora and Russian
Premiere Victor Tchernomyrdin unlike the previous passed not in
"President-hotel", and in residence situated near Moscow "Pine forest". A place choice - in an hour
Drivings from Moscow, far away from curious eyes and ears, and unprecedented
Protection - all suggests it that this time was required
To provide much bigger degree of confidentiality, rather than before. Between
That the official agenda of regular session of the Commission of Mountains-chernomyrdin was
It is traditional enough.
It is known, however, that at meetings of the vice-president of the United States and
The prime minister of the Russian Federation except the formal summons always takes place and
The informal. It is known also, that a considerable part of this informal
Summonses it is taken away to power problems. Upholding practice
Administration of interests of large domestic business, and in the first
The turn of the power companies, in the USA exists for a long time, in Russia it
Has appeared with arrival to Victor Tchernomyrdin's government.
On the eve of a meeting one of participating in its preparation
Representatives of high rank of US State department has informed, that on this
Party time will solve a question on ways of transportation of the Caspian oil.
The American official has noticed, that the given question though does not enter in
The official program of meetings Mountain and Tchernomyrdin, from time to time
It is discussed by them - "when it is demanded by circumstance".
Why circumstances have demanded discussion of a problem of transportation
The Caspian oil right now, it is clear: in October the international consortium
Begins an oil recovery on the Azerbaijan shelf. Thus begins
Job on the first oil contract concluded three years ago
The government of Azerbaijan with the foreign companies. In total such
Contracts already nine. And the basic share of participation in them is necessary on
The American oil companies. Now before them there is an export problem
The Azerbaijan oil on the world markets.
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The first oil contract between the government of Azerbaijan and
By consortium of the foreign oil companies has been concluded on September, 20th 1994
Year in Baku. First Moscow objected to the practice of the conclusion
Similar contracts, insisting that resources of Caspian sea should
To be developed at participation and with the consent of all coastal countries. But then,
Having understood what to stop this process it will not be possible, has joined in struggle for
Transit of the Caspian oil promising multi-billion incomes on the world markets.
The basic competitor of Russia is Turkey, offering to transport
The Azerbaijan oil to the Mediterranean coast.
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The same problem - oil transportations - is actual and on other coast
Caspian sea, on the Kazakhstan peninsula Mangyshlak, where the American company
"SHevron" from the beginning of 90th years develops well-known Tengizsky
Deposit. The arrangement on export tengizskoj oil through the Russian
Territory, to Novorossisk it has been reached in 1992. Then was
The Caspian pipeline consortium (KTK) which should is created also
To carry out this project but so till now and has not made it. The charter to wait
Realisations of project KTK, Kazakhstan last week has entered into the agreement with
The Chinese national oil company about building of an oil pipeline from
Tengiza to Persian gulf - through Turkmenia and Iran.
As a result Russia, trying to direct both streams of the Caspian oil -
Both Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan - through the territory, to
To Novorossisk, has faced real threat to lose both that, and another. At
Each of the Russian routes of the Caspian oil has appeared quite real
Alternative: Turkish for the Azerbaijan oil and Iranian for
The Kazakhstan. From these laid bypassing Russia of routes, American
Administration the first quite arranges - passing through territory
Allied Turkey. The second - through the hostile USA Iran - equally
It is not favourable neither to Moscow, nor Washington.
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A number of events, proisshedshih the day before, during time and after a meeting Mountain and
Tchernomyrdin, allows to assume, that Moscow and Washington have concluded
The transaction of ways of transportation of the Caspian oil. Russia
Refuses plans for transportation of the Azerbaijan oil. Instead of the USA
Promise it support in a question on transit of the Kazakhstan oil. Possibilities
For this purpose at Washington is: the American oil companies occupy
Strong positions and at east coast of Caspian sea - "SHevron" develops
The Tengizsky deposit, and "Mobile" is the shareholder Chinese
The national oil company.
The Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan oil - quite comparable volumes - in
To prospect of an order of 60-70 million tons in a year. By estimations, cumulative
Receipts in the Russian budget from transit tengizskoj oil can
To make about $23,3 billion And in this case Russia gets rid from
Constant blackmail from the Chechen Republic as the Kazakhstan pipe passes
To the north from rebellious republic. Besides a gain for transit of the Kazakhstan
Oil should not divide with Grozny.
Indirect acknowledgement of change of a pipeline policy of Russia in
Prikaspii the secretary of Council can serve and that the same days
Safety of the Russian Federation Ivan Rybkin has suddenly cancelled a trip to Grozny, and Chechen
The delegation, on the contrary, has taken off for Moscow. The Chechen Republic is afraid to lose
Petrotransit.
The meeting of the vice-president of the United States directs at reflexions and that fact, that and
The Russian prime minister it has been continued in Samara - the large transit site
Between Kazakhstan and Russia. And the same days KTK has started negotiations with
The Russian regions on which territory there should pass an oil pipeline from
Tengiza to Novorossisk.
But, refusing transit of the Azerbaijan oil, Moscow should help
The USA in realisation of a southern route. And here one of the main obstacles -
The Karabakh conflict. While this conflict is not extinguished, safety
From Baku to Turkish coast anybody cannot guarantee the pipeline.
Without the consent of Russia - the main ally of Armenia - the Karabakh conflict
Not to settle.
The western plan of the Karabakh settlement any more a secret is for a long time
"Dayton model", applied in Bosnia. However an indispensable component
"Dayton" participation of a NATO military vehicle (mainly the USA) is,
And it was represented until recently impossible first of all
Because of a position of Moscow. Still recently Russian president Boris Yeltsin assured
Minister for Foreign Affairs Evgenie Primakov, that the USA "never will send in
Transcaucasia the soldiers ", therefore supposedly and the settlement initiative not
Should pass in the American hands.
Moreover, Moscow objected to occurrence of NATO soldiers in general on
Territories of the CIS. Even in the summer Russia protested against joint from NATO
Doctrines of Ukraine "Sea breeze-97". And and has not tempered justice with mercy, not
Having sent on doctrines even observers.
And here to come to the end last week in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
To doctrines "п?п п?я я п п?п п я -97", the relation was already cardinal the opposite.
The Russian military men not only have accepted in them participation, but also have considered useful
To spend them and in delnejshem. Meanwhile, structure of participants and scenarios of doctrines
In Crimea and the Central Asia were almost identical: struggle against separatists,
Leaning against neighbouring country support.
For time which has passed from "the Sea breeze" to "TSentrazabata" a situation
Has changed. The Minister for Foreign Affairs of Russia Evgenie Primakov, calming on
Days of Baku, has informed, that the Russian-Armenian military agreement not
It is directed against the third countries, and has straightened out Karabakh politicians,
Declaring readiness to solve a problem the military man by. Russian
The Ministry of Defence has postponed for uncertain time planned on
October joint Russian-Armenian military doctrines.
And in the meantime Yerevan and Baku were visited by co-chairmen of the Minsk group of OSCE
On the Karabakh settlement. And this time statements of participants
Negotiations were rather optimistical: already till the end of this year it is expected
Success in the permission of the Karabakh conflict.
Similar, that with inevitability of arrival of "Dayton" in Karabah have agreed and in
Yerevan. Armenia has joined the transit agreement signed in
1994 in Ashkhabad presidents of Uzbekistan, Turkmenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia according to which the parties undertake to give each other
Free mode of transit journey on the territory. Without settlement
The Karabakh conflict and razblokirovanija Azerbaijan of communications (and
It assumes the first stage of the plan offered by the Minsk group
OSCE) this agreement for Yerevan is deprived sense.
Apparently the transaction of Moscow and Washington has taken place. Russia has agreed
To let in NATO the CIS. The USA thus promised not to forget about the Russian
Interests. Addressing to Boris Yeltsin Albert Gor has assured it, that the USA,
Developing mutual relations with the CIS countries, never put before
Itself aim to "squeeze out or replace with itself Russia, to provide to itself any
Influence zones. The USA, he has noted, are ready to work together with Russia over
Stability and world strengthening in crisis points of the CIS.
Gennady of SENSES.
Albert Gora and Victor Tchernomyrdin's last meeting passed much
More confidentially, than previous.
A number of events, proisshedshih the day before, during time and after a meeting of Mountains
- Tchernomyrdin, allows to assume, that Moscow and Washington have agreed
About ways of transportation of the Caspian oil.
//* an information Source: the Businessman (weekly journal), 30.09.97
//* Reg. Nom. - 6070900189.22-------------------------------------------
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